And whether you are a first time homebuyer, debating the viability of building your dream house in San Bernardino, or a real estate investor looking to sell condominium units in Los Angeles, you certainly want to know: When is it the optimum time to buy or sell?

Purchasing a house is a major investment. With judicious planning, this valuable asset will appreciate with each year.

But how do you get the big picture? Fortunately, real estate trends are predictable because these develop over a long period, unlike the stock market, which is rather volatile.

The first thing you will need to do is to read and track real estate articles: the market reports of the California Association of Realtors or the California Building Industry Association, and the briefs created by housing analyst companies.

Once you have identified the following key indicators you will have a better grasp of the general trends in Californias real estate market.

THE FIVE KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH

Interest Rates
When interest rates rise, buyers shy away. Conversely, lowered interest rates attract more buyers.

This year, interest rates in California are on an upswing. For example, thirty-year fixed mortgage rates, which averaged 5.71 percent in 2005, has risen to 6 percent levels in January 2006. And adjustable mortgage interest rates have moved up to 5 percent levels compared to 4.12 percent in 2005.

Building Permits
The higher the number of building permits issued, the higher the demand for houses.

Figures show that number of building permits issued for the year 2006, have fallen by 10 percent in comparison to last years figures. In terms of houses, thats a decrease of 1,430 building permits compared to January 2005 figures, according to California Building Industry Association report.

Home Sales
This key indicator refers to the total number of homes sold. In the law of supply and demand, when there are few buyers, real estate prices fall.

The January 2006 figures of the California Association of Realtors reveal that the number of existing single-family detached homes sold, has gone down by 24.1 percent in comparison to sales for the entire year 2005.

Another factor to consider is the growing inventory of available houses in certain counties in California, which is changing the market dynamics. What was once a sellers market is slowly turning into a buyers market.

Loan Defaults
This refers to the failure of homeowners to pay their monthly mortgage fees. One downside to this is that many Californian homeowners are choosing to have a bad credit report, rather than to keep paying fees for a home whose value has been inflated by as much as 20 percent more.

Foreclosure Sales
Figures presented by DataQuick Information Systems, a housing analyst company, indicate that foreclosure activities in California have gone up by 19 percent in the last quarter of 2005. This is an increase of 3 percent compared to the third quarter of 2005, and is 4.6 percent higher when compared to 2004s last quarter figures.

When foreclosure sales are on an upswing, consumer spending is down and consumer debt levels have risen. In the real estate market, this has meant that many financially strapped homeowners are selling their homes at lower prices. The other contributable factors are inflation, the rising prices of gasoline, federal budget deficit, and interest rates.

Concurrently, these key indicators confirm that although home sales levels in California are falling, the demand for houses remains strong and steady. Always do your due diligence before undertaking a purchase of property in California.

1. Excellent Customer Service

Your guests will remember you by the service they receive during their stay at your villa rental, apartment or vacation rental. The property rental service you choose should offer excellent customer service and be able to provide testimonials from satisfied property owners. Your guests should arrive to a clean villa, home or apartment.

If renting for a vacation, golf holiday or some other Spain holiday, each guest should receive a welcome packet including directions to the rental property as well as helpful information about the surrounding area. If you have an apartment for rent, tenants should be treated well. Rental payment collection, service maintenance and assistance with local utility and phone set-ups should be provided with friendliness and thoroughness.

2. Cleaning Management

A property rental service should provide reliable cleaning management. You might live too far away to handle cleaning or manage a maid service. If you live in England or the U.S., but your vacation rental or apartment for rent is located in Fuengirola, Mijas, Puerto Banus, or Elviria of Spain, then you’ll need a property rental service that will handle cleaning with care. For holiday rentals and villa rentals, cleaning must be provided between each guests’ stay and sometimes during the week of a stay as well. For vacation homes and villas, the lawn must be maintained as well. Be sure this is included with your service.

3. Key Holding, Inventory, and Detailed Necessities

You may not be able to handle local errands for your vacation rental or apartment for rent. Therefore, the property rental service should be entrusted with these tasks. Some necessities to keep the rental property operating legally include key holding, insurance, property tax and levies, building permits or licensing, bank account management, phone and utility set up and billing, etc.

Another area of importance is inventory. The furniture and other valuables in your apartment or villa rental must be kept on an inventory list and checked physically each time a guest departs. If you live in another country but own rental property in an area of Spain such as Costa del Sol, Marbella, Benalmadena or any other area, then obviously you’re going to need someone locally who can check your inventory for you. Choose a property rental service that provides these types of services to eliminate worries while you’re away.

4. Building Refurbishing and Major Repairs

Another feature to look for in a property rental service is whether or not they provide building refurbishing services and major repairs. The benefit of this is the provider will already have contacts to do the jobs needed. You won’t have to spend endless hours trying to find a dependable contractor or handyman.

5. Promoting Your Apartment or Spain Holiday Rental

Check to be sure the property rental service will promote your apartment for rent or Spain holiday rental. Promotions will increase your number of rentals and profits each year. A property rental service may handle your advertising in local, national and international venues. If they have a website, they may promote your holiday rentals at the site. If you own a vacation rental near golf courses, then make sure they will advertise your rental from the angle of “golf holidays.”

Keep these features in mind during your search for a property rental service. By choosing a service with great features, you’ll have peace of mind knowing that your holiday rental or apartment for rent is in good hands!

It’s startling to learn that of all those thousands of eager folks who attend these seminars only about 5% buy even one investment house. Why? The real estate gurus sell the “sizzle” and make profiting from real estate sound easy. The truth is that it’s simple, but not easy.

Here’s a quick plan that will enable anyone to begin building financial independence.

There are basically four steps to investing in single family homes:

1. Buy homes below full market value. Yes, people really do sell homes for less than the home’s full value. The key is to understand that most home owners will only consider a purchase offer that is all cash and within 5% to 10% of their asking price.

The successful investor learns to find financially distressed home owners who have no choice but to sell for less than market value. They have lost their job or been suddenly transferred; they are divorcing; they been living beyond their income; the family has been overwhelmed with medical bills and, not uncommonly these days, their money has gone to support a drug habit.

Those are examples of motivated sellers. They have to sell and they will accept something other than a conventional, all cash offer.

2. How do you find motivated sellers? You work at it! Like any business it is important to develop a little marketing plan. One that is simple, yet very effective, is the one that was proven 75 years ago by the Fuller Brush company; door to door sales.

You are selling your skill as a home buyer to people who must sell. Your are there when they need you and you have the skill to help them solve at least part of their problem. With door to door prospecting you will learn more and buy more homes quicker than any other method. However, most people just won’t walk door to door for three or four hours per week. OK, there are other ways.

You can watch public notices for the announcement of foreclosure sales. Meeting with a home owner right after they’ve received a notice that they are about to lose their home allows you to deal with a very motivated seller. Other public notices that provide buying opportunities include probate, divorce and bankruptcy. You can follow the Homes For Sale listings in your local newspaper or Internet site.

You can telephone the names found in these notices or, and this is the least time consuming, send a postcard expressing your interest in buying their property. It will produce buying opportunities, just not as many as personal contact.

3. After you’ve found a motivated seller you must understand how to frame offers that provide benefits for both you and for the home owner. A good real estate investor quickly learns that this is not a business of stealing property, but of solving problems in a way that benefits the seller.

The home owner is in a tight spot of some kind and you can save them from public embarrassment and, in most cases, give them at least a little cash to get a new start.

No investor can afford to leave cash in every deal. No one but Bill Gates has that much available money. You must use creative techniques like, leases, option and taking over mortgage payments. Little or no cash is needed for those deals. You can find plenty of reasonable priced educational material on those subjects in book stores or on EBay. The same education that seminars sell for thousands of dollars.

4. You make your profit when you buy! Never make a purchase until you’ve carefully determined exactly how you will get to your profit. If you hold it as a long term investment will the monthly rental income more than cover the monthly mortgage payment? Will you sell the deal to another investor for fast cash? Will you do some fix-up and sell the property for full value? Will you quickly trade it for a more desirable property? Have a plan before you buy.

There you have four steps that even a part-time investor can execute in three to four hours per week. What’s the missing ingredient? Your determination and perseverance. If you will unfailingly follow the plan for a few months you will be well on your way to financial independence.

1. Property Taxes. Keep the property for a few years and you may experience a surge in property taxes especially if your taxes are reevaluated during that time. Some hot real estate markets have seen taxes nearly double in just 5 or 6 years.

2. Renovation Expenses. You may have purchased a “fixer upper” at a bargain rate. Once your project is complete will you be able to recover the expenses and make a profit especially if the value of your renovated property is above those in your neighborhood? In addition, can you withstand a correction in real estate values?

3. Insurance and Mortgage Costs. You will pay more for homeowners insurance if you do not occupy the residence and you have tenants. If you are financing the property you know that your mortgage rate is higher as well.

4. Rental Pressures. A market saturated with rentals will mean that the rents you can charge will be less than what you had hoped to receive. In some markets you are required to get special licensing in order to be a landlord. In other markets the legal rights of tenants mean you could have a lengthy and expensive battle in ridding yourself of a bad tenant. Will the lower income levels coupled with the added expenses drag your investment down?

Of course, you can limit your risks [and costs] by doing the majority of the upgrades yourself, appealing excessive property tax increases, and finding for yourself a trusted and dependable tenant. It isn’t easy flipping a home, but with a lot of pluck and determination it can result in strong profits for you.

If so, you’re losing money. Think about these three ways you lose money by renting:

1. You’re paying for someone else’s mortgage payment. You’re missing out on the appreciation that the property gives to the landlord. Appreciation is a term used in accounting relating to the increase in value of an asset, which means in real estate terms, added value to the property. Over the past five years, houses appreciated significantly, making many new real estate investor multimillionaires.

2. Renters don’t get to freeze their monthly housing expenses like home buyers can. Of course, many home buyers get mortgage payments with adjustable interest rates and their payments go up over time. However, these payments will not go up over the long term like rising rents. Just think about how much an apartment costs today compared to ten years ago. A two bedroom apartment in Lake Elsinore, California leases for $1,000 today. The exact same apartment rented for $325 in 1996, when it was brand new. Home buyers who had low monthly payments in 1996, who did not refinance their mortgage, enjoy low payments and don’t have to worry about rising rents.

3. Renters don’t benefit from tax advantages. Home owners get income tax deductions. Tax deductions for interest costs, for instance, save tax payers thousands of dollars.

Emotional Satisfaction of Home Ownership

Besides losing out on making money with real estate, renters don’t get the same satisfaction of home enjoyment that benefits home buyers. Many landlords won’t allow you to paint your walls in colors that you desire. Also, you won’t feel like fixing up the property with custom window coverings and you get little say in flooring materials. Because you can’t make your personal statement, you won’t feel like you’re HOME as much as home owners who feel emotionally connected to their property.

How to Buy Your First Home

The biggest barrier to home ownership is often accumulating funds for a down payment. People think they have to have thousands of dollars for a down payment. However, if you have good credit and a decent job, you can get a mortgage for a home with zero down. And you can finance some of your closing costs as well as ask the seller to help you pay a good portion of your purchase costs. With today’s mortgage finance plans, you may be surprised to find out how much of a home you can afford with payments similar to what you currently pay in rent.

You may have to go out of the major metropolitan areas to buy a home. That’s why so many people commute in Southern California. Affordable housing costs much less in outlying areas. But so do the rents. If you’re renting an apartment for $2,300 in Los Angeles, you could buy a $500,000 home in Wildomar. Our daughter just purchased a home in December 2005 and her mortgage payment, for a 3,000 square foot new home, costs less than $2,300. With her tax savings, she will pay even less than renting a small apartment closer to downtown L A.

If these amounts sound high to you, check your local area. Perhaps your monthly rent is only $1,000 and houses cost less than $200,000. Talk to a mortgage loan officer and see how much of a home you can afford.

If you’re renting, make one of your priorities to buy your own home.

Copyright 2006 Jeanette J. Fisher

To be really effective, you need to look at both the outside and the inside of your home. Here are 3 tips to get you started with the outside of your home:

1. Go stand on the street to see what clients see when driving up to the house. Be aware that any negative impressions they get outside the house (landscaping not maintained or non-existent, peeling paint, etc.) is just going to make them think that the house itself has not been well taken care of. So even if you have spent the time and money to fix up the interior, it would all be wasted if the clients get a bad first impression as they drive up to the house.

2. Next, step outside your front door and close the door; then stand on the stoop and look around for 5 minutes. While the realtor fumbles for keys and tries to figure out how to open the door, the clients are standing behind and looking around. So what are they seeing? Dead plants, old Halloween decorations in the middle of January, cobwebs? Again, not a good first impression!

Its definitely worth it to take some time and clean it up. Want to go a step further? Try a new coat of paint or some new furniture or accessories.

3. Dont forget the backyard. While that might not be part of the potential buyers first impression experience, you still should make sure its in the best condition possible. Pull up weeds, water plants, do some sweeping (if thats applicable in your case) and maybe even purchase new furniture or accessories (plant pots, bird houses, etc.)

And the biggest tip of all? Imagine yourself as a potential buyer looking at your property for the very first time. What impressions are you getting? Would YOU buy your house? What would you like to see changed before you put an offer on your house?

And dont worry about spending several thousand dollars to get your house ready to sell youll get it all back when your house sells. Proper staging helps you sell your house in a shorter time and at the price you want.

To be really effective, you need to look at both the outside and the inside of your home. Here are 3 tips to get you started with the inside of your home:

1. De-clutter. This is one of the most important things you can do. It might be easier to think of de-cluttering like this youre moving anyway, so why not start packing now?

Pack up everything you dont need and store the boxes out of sight in the garage (or consider temporarily renting a small storage locker).

2. Organize your closets – put similar colors together, pants together, skirts together, shirts together etc. Why? Because it will make the closets look bigger. (Really.) An organized closet appears bigger, and you want your closets to look as spacious as possible.

3. Make your home look like a model. You want to de-personalize as much as possible so potential buyers can imagine themselves and their own belongings occupying the space in your house. That means minimizing putting away everything you dont need or use. Clear off kitchen counters as much as possible stash all those appliances you dont use, and put miscellaneous small clutter in a few attractive baskets or boxes

And the biggest tip of all? Imagine yourself as a potential buyer looking at your property for the very first time. What impressions are you getting? Would YOU buy your house? What would you like to see changed before you put an offer on your house?

And dont worry about spending several thousand dollars to get your house ready to sell youll get it all back when your house sells. Proper staging helps you sell your house in a shorter time and at the price you want.

This article is exactly what you need to do, to sell your home or create a bunch of leads of individuals, who are HOT prospects to buy your home.

Before, I share my 3 steroid ideas on selling your homes; you need to take a few simple steps…

PREPARATION

1. You need to locate and interview an aggressive Mortgage Broker, very knowledgeable, with a GREAT TRACK RECORD of closing deals, especially difficult ones.

I cannot stress enough the importance, of having a great broker on your power team. I own and run, the R.E.I.A. (real estate investor club / www.tcreia.com) in my area, so whenever I hear a member, say they got a difficult deal closed, I always make sure to inquire for an introduction, because this might be the broker who can get most of my deals funded.

Remember, you can sell a home ten times, if you can’t get the buyer funded by a mortgage company…who cares, your wasting your time.

2. You should make some effort in fixing the home up; even if it’s a hunker, I’d still get the lawn cut and maybe throw a coat of paint on the property. You’d be amazed at the improvement to even an ugly property, with a simple coat of paint on the front of the property.

3. Go to your local community financing office or local grant and home buyer bond office. For example in my area (South Florida and Palm Beach County), both counties run a FREE class for your buyers on becoming a first time home buyer and when they take the class, they then get a voucher from the county, giving them $10,000.00 toward the purchase of their first home. The best part is sometimes the loans are even forgiven, when certain criteria are met by the new homeowner.

LET’S DO SOME MARKETING ON STEROIDS

Let’s be frank, your going to have to be more aggressive, smarter and persistent than 99% of all your homes neighbors.

There’s no magic pill, but this has been working for both my students and me, for the last year, and we’re always testing and fine-tuning the system.

And I can tell you, that while every other investor, is sitting with their heads in their butts, my students and I are able to sell all of our properties, during one of the worst RE slowdowns in history, and this is in South Florida, one of the most depressed markets in the Country,

1. Buyer First System

Basically you create your own buyers. The best example would be converting a lifetime renter into the American Dream a homeowner. Just so happens, that while becoming the American Dream, they also end up buying your home.

Very simply, create a flyer or postcard, and market to communities of people who would be a great prospect to buy your home.

Who doesn’t want to be a homeowner in America? Nobody, that’s a stupid question, everyone wants to be a homeowner, and it’s bred into us as kids.

The real key is you must understand, that these individuals renting, most are under the impression they CAN’T get a mortgage. They might have tried in the past, and we’re shutdown and embarrassed, only to believe they would live the rest of their lives as a RENTER.

These are the best leads you can focus on, because it’s not a matter of IF they’ll buy your home, they will, the key is can you get them funded or is it the right house for them, financially affordable.

I must also share with you, this strategy will take some of your time and initiative, because their is hand holding involved, mortgage brokers, and helping them get any government help in First time homebuyer money.

2. Fish in some one else’s pond!

Go where the most prospects are for your home. I’ll give you some examples, you need to go where the most and the best prospects are to buy your home, assuming it’s a good deal (priced right, and there’s still built-in equity for your buyer).

If you have any contacts or a friend of a friend, now is the time for using it and your expectations are for these contacts to open doors for you, to their sphere of influence.

For Example, one of my students, Courtney, leveraged a contact he had, his cousin (she was a middle school teacher), and she introduced him into the schools, where it just happened that the schools are in the same area, that he was selling a great starter home.

He sold the home that he needed to the most, but then, once word spread of what he was able to do, the rest of the teachers came out of everywhere, wanting him to help them. He’s since helping the 1st teacher, sold another 5 homes, to 5 different teachers, earning him over $30,000.00 for this simple, leveraged relationship.

So what ponds can you fish in, with your marketing? Think about whom you know (friends, family members, and associates)?

BEST: Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, Government Employees, Bus Drivers, Department of Transportation. (These careers are loved by lenders, they mostly have good credit, and their income is basically guaranteed and very stable.)

GOOD: Large local employers: Supermarkets, Local telephone company (Bell South), Home Depot, Wal-Mart, etc.

3. Use the Internet…

You should definitely have an individual website for your property.

You can get a simple site built for under $100.00.

Use www.elance.com or www.rentacoder.com : Two great sites, for getting your site created, they are both similar to EBay. You post an auction about your project (your home website), and then companies bid on your job, and you get to see samples of their work and read all their feedback, after you decided who wins your job, you choose a winner. Oh by the way, both of these services cost you nothing, their completely FREE. Take some pictures with a digital camera of your home and you’ll end up emailing them to the site designer, to post on your site. (good example, is www.735airoso.com) Treat this as an online, digital brochure, basically being able to do whatever you can conceive. You can take a video of the home, with you walking through the home and then have it placed on your site. If you’re intimidated by video, like I was at first, don’t be, because your web site designer can do it for you, very easily.

Now, when ever you talk to someone on the phone or in person, they can quickly look at your property, on the web. This will be the best $100.00 you’ll ever spend on marketing of your home.

4. BONUS: Promote and hold your own, “First Time Homebuyer Seminar”.

Before you say anything, I don’t expect you to be Tony Robbins, if you can get 10 to 15 people in a room, your going to be successful.

We shared this strategy with my mentoring students, and it’s been working excellent for them, from the results I’ve been receiving back from my future millionaires. In fact, one of my students from Miami, Alex, has been executing this strategy like gangbusters.

Before writing this article, I received permission from Alex to share some of his feedback with you, on the Homebuyer seminars that have been very successful for him.

He’s now doing 1 a month, every month. Also, since he’s has a few successfully under his belt, he’s now selling sponsorship space to his seminars, to Mortgage brokers, credit repair companies, and he’s even worked out a joint venture with two different realtors, whom pay him for every property they sell to one of his prospects.

If you’re curious how he’s filling the room, all he’s doing is as follows…

-Flyers in Parking lots, I.E. Wal-Mart, Publix Supermarkets, and local churches.

-Free Advertising on www.craigslist.com

-He uses bandit style signs on the side of the road, 18 x 24, corrugated plastic signs.

-He’s even put up a website that the attendees, can pre-register for the seminar. (Sorry, he didn’t want me giving out the site, for obvious reasons)

-He also is giving them an ethical bribe for attending the seminar; he gives them a few nooks and tapes just for making it to the event. The best part is he received the books for free on the internet, and he’s also allowed to give them away for free and even rebrand them as his own books.

Pitfall Number 1: Dont Overpay!

The whole point in investing is to find properties that are undervalued. How does one find out what is undervalued versus overvalued? Without getting into technical details, the bottom line is you need experience. Yes much like shopping for anything else, real estate is essentially one of the highest ticket items in the shopping center of life. Its advisable to stick with one market, perhaps the one closest to you in proximity as a starting off point. Through your experience and asking the right questions, you will eventually have a feel for the pulse of the market you are looking after, and of course identify what is considered a good buy.

Pitfall Number 2: Know the Market

Yes, you are actually going to have to do more work! This part is really common sense though, but executing it where the beauty and the payoff comes in. How do you make money in real estate? The most basic way is to buy low and sell high. So from the first step, you have identified general trends in the value of homes, and are pretty good at spotting undervalued homes. Assuming you acquire that home, you may want to profit from it by selling it off to someone else for a higher price. How can you do this? Well there are many ways. For one, most markets appreciate in value over time so if you want a longer term approach that will work. Making upgrades to the property will automatically raise the price of the home as well. Think in terms of what the market wants, not what you personally want. You arent the one buying it; you are trying to sell it to someone else for a higher price than you bought it.

Pitfall Number 3: Know Your Budget

It may be a fine philosophy to go through life on a whim, but real estate is serious business, and thus diligent financial planning and budgeting is critical to your success. Dont worry you dont need to be a finance geek, however you need to be disciplined and know your budget from the onset, or you may be finding you are learning that you need to make certain renovations or upgrades, and didnt anticipate it going over to a certain cost. Think ahead as to what is needed before actually going forth with investing in real estate.

The last five years have seen explosive growth in the real estate market and as a result many people believe that real estate is the safest investment you can make. Well, that is no longer true. Rapidly increasing real estate prices have caused the real estate market to be at price levels never before seen in history when adjusted for inflation! The growing number of people concerned about the real estate bubble means there are less available real estate buyers. Fewer buyers mean that prices are coming down.

On May 4, 2006, Federal Reserve Board Governor Susan Blies stated that “Housing has really sort of peaked”. This follows on the heels of the new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying that he was concerned that the “softening” of the real estate market would hurt the economy. And former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan previously described the real estate market as frothy. All of these top financial experts agree that there is already a viable downturn in the market, so clearly there is a need to know the reasons behind this change.

3 of the top 9 reasons that the real estate bubble will burst include:
1. Interest rates are rising – foreclosures are up 72%!
2. First time homebuyers are priced out of the market – the real estate market is a pyramid and the base is crumbling
3. The psychology of the market has changed so that now people are afraid of the bubble bursting – the mania over real estate is over!

The first reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is rising interest rates. Under Alan Greenspan, interest rates were at historic lows from June 2003 to June 2004. These low interest rates allowed people to buy homes that were more expensive then what they could normally afford but at the same monthly cost, essentially creating “free money”. However, the time of low interest rates has ended as interest rates have been rising and will continue to rise further. Interest rates must rise to combat inflation, partly due to high gasoline and food costs. Higher interest rates make owning a home more expensive, thus driving existing home values down.

Higher interest rates are also affecting people who bought adjustable mortgages (ARMs). Adjustable mortgages have very low interest rates and low monthly payments for the first two to three years but afterwards the low interest rate disappears and the monthly mortgage payment jumps dramatically. As a result of adjustable mortgage rate resets, home foreclosures for the 1st quarter of 2006 are up 72% over the 1st quarter of 2005.

The foreclosure situation will only worsen as interest rates continue to rise and more adjustable mortgage payments are adjusted to a higher interest rate and higher mortgage payment. Moody’s stated that 25% of all outstanding mortgages are coming up for interest rate resets during 2006 and 2007. That is $2 trillion of U.S. mortgage debt! When the payments increase, it will be quite a hit to the pocketbook. A study done by one of the country’s largest title insurers concluded that 1.4 million households will face a payment jump of 50% or more once the introductory payment period is over.

The second reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is that new homebuyers are no longer able to buy homes due to high prices and higher interest rates. The real estate market is basically a pyramid scheme and as long as the number of buyers is growing everything is fine. As homes are bought by first time home buyers at the bottom of the pyramid, the new money for that $100,000.00 home goes all the way up the pyramid to the seller and buyer of a $1,000,000.00 home as people sell one home and buy a more expensive home. This double-edged sword of high real estate prices and higher interest rates has priced many new buyers out of the market, and now we are starting to feel the effects on the overall real estate market. Sales are slowing and inventories of homes available for sale are rising quickly. The latest report on the housing market showed new home sales fell 10.5% for February 2006. This is the largest one-month drop in nine years.

The third reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is that the psychology of the real estate market has changed. For the last five years the real estate market has risen dramatically and if you bought real estate you more than likely made money. This positive return for so many investors fueled the market higher as more people saw this and decided to also invest in real estate before they ‘missed out’.

The psychology of any bubble market, whether we are talking about the stock market or the real estate market is known as ‘herd mentality’, where everyone follows the herd. This herd mentality is at the heart of any bubble and it has happened numerous times in the past including during the US stock market bubble of the late 1990′s, the Japanese real estate bubble of the 1980′s, and even as far back as the US railroad bubble of the 1870′s. The herd mentality had completely taken over the real estate market until recently.

The bubble continues to rise as long as there is a “greater fool” to buy at a higher price. As there are less and less “greater fools” available or willing to buy homes, the mania disappears. When the hysteria passes, the excessive inventory that was built during the boom time causes prices to plummet. This is true for all three of the historical bubbles mentioned above and many other historical examples. Also of importance to note is that when all three of these historical bubbles burst the US was thrown into recession.

With the changing in mindset related to the real estate market, investors and speculators are getting scared that they will be left holding real estate that will lose money. As a result, not only are they buying less real estate, but they are simultaneously selling their investment properties as well. This is producing huge numbers of homes available for sale on the market at the same time that record new home construction floods the market. These two increasing supply forces, the increasing supply of existing homes for sale coupled with the increasing supply of new homes for sale will further exacerbate the problem and drive all real estate values down.

A recent survey showed that 7 out of 10 people think the real estate bubble will burst before April 2007. This change in the market psychology from ‘must own real estate at any cost’ to a healthy concern that real estate is overpriced is causing the end of the real estate market boom.

The aftershock of the bubble bursting will be enormous and it will affect the global economy tremendously. Billionaire investor George Soros has said that in 2007 the US will be in recession and I agree with him. I think we will be in a recession because as the real estate bubble bursts, jobs will be lost, Americans will no longer be able to cash out money from their homes, and the entire economy will slow down dramatically thus leading to recession.

In conclusion, the three reasons the real estate bubble is bursting are higher interest rates; first-time buyers being priced out of the market; and the psychology about the real estate market is changing. The recently published eBook “How To Prosper In The Changing Real Estate Market. Protect Yourself From The Bubble Now!” discusses these items in more detail. For more information visit www.MyRealEstateBubble.com

# # #